Talking with Jamf Support they think that if Software Update has "Install macOS updates" turned on they think it doesn't use the "Install macOS Ventura.app" to kick off the install. In that case Restricted Software won't block the new macOS from installing in that situation. I might need to find a way to turn off the "Install macOS updates" from within Software Updates.
They did suggest using a config profile to defer updates just like @jamf-42 suggested. The other thing they suggested was to use Restricted Software to block "InstallAssistant". That however will prevent users from doing any major macOS upgrade.
remove software update option from system settings with config profile
yes, you need to set software update config profile to just install security updates
block the binary ' InstallAssistant'
block the binary 'softwareupdate' <-- this needs careful thought.. its used by jamf by default