Is this happening on both Intel and Apple Silicon Macs?
A user has just reported the same problem to me.
His Mac is up to date and no update checker policy available has been deployed.

Annoying for the user and for me who does not know where it can come from 🤔 🤔
A few users are having the same issue at our company. Is there any fix or possible resolution for this issue?
Was anyone able to come up with a solution for this? We are starting to see this.
Anyone come up with a solution for this ? It just started happening for us.
Funny enough, Apple came back to me yesterday with a work around of sending a download only command it should override the deferrals. I sent my first test command this morning so we'll see what happens. Apple also opened a bug as this shouldn't be happening.
Funny enough, Apple came back to me yesterday with a work around of sending a download only command it should override the deferrals. I sent my first test command this morning so we'll see what happens. Apple also opened a bug as this shouldn't be happening.
So your saying just go to management and choose download OS updates command and their saying that should fix the pop up notification? Ty in advance.
So your saying just go to management and choose download OS updates command and their saying that should fix the pop up notification? Ty in advance.
That is what I'm told. Since the popup only goes every 24 hours, I'm waiting to see if it fixes the issue on my device.
This is what they said:
Steps To Mitigate
With regard to mitigating this and ceasing the software update notifications on affected systems, I recommend sending a new ScheduleOSUpdate command to the devices with an InstallAction of DownloadOnly for the same ProductVersion that it was scoped for when this behavior was triggered by the InstallLater InstallAction.
ScheduleOSUpdateCommand
InstallAction
string
DownloadOnly: Download the software update without installing it. This value is available in iOS 9 and later, macOS 11 and later, and tvOS 12 and later.
ProductVersion
string
The version of the update, which the system requires if ProductKey isn’t present. This value is available in iOS 11.3 and later, macOS 12 and later, and tvOS 12.2 and later.
This should cause the previous InstallLater’s scheduled update to be cancelled by the newly sent DownloadOnly process which should trigger the device to check for the update in the software update catalog, determine that it is not available and report that back to MDM without notifying the user when it occurs. Effectively remotely breaking your devices out of the MDM OS update notification loop. If not, please be sure to let me know.
That is what I'm told. Since the popup only goes every 24 hours, I'm waiting to see if it fixes the issue on my device.
Gotcha! I just tried it as well I will wait to hear back from my coworker as well.