We were just made aware of this, and Jamf and Apple have confirmed. The Ventura release on Monday will be considered a minor update for anything 12.3 and higher, so major OS deferrals will not apply. Apple's recommendation is to defer all minor updates as well as major until you can get your clients to 12.6.1 (not released yet, maybe also on the 24th?). Jamf confirmed to us that you should have all your clients at 12.6.1 by Wednesday, November 23, 2022 if you wish to defer Ventura past that date.
Just passing on info. Hopefully this helps someone avoid a rough Monday.
Edit: Adding direct quote from our Jamf rep that explains better than I did:
Ventura major deferral bug, in a nutshell
On macOS 12.2 or earlier? - You're all good. Not affected.
On macOS 12.3 or later?
There's a bug. It's fixed in 12.6.1 and Apple has made a change so even 12.3+ will be fine for 30 days - make sure to get 12.6.1 installed
If you don't get 12.6.1 installed, Ventura updates published after 30 days might appear on Macs running 12.3 - 12.6 - even when major deferred
If you're past 30 days but not on 12.6.1, you can mitigate seeing Ventura by deferring both major and minor (but you should focus on getting to 12.6.1)
